Myanmar: After the Coup, The Conflicts
A deepening crisis
Myanmar has plunged into turmoil since the military coup in February 2021. The origins of this crisis trace back to November 2020, when Aung San Suu Kyi and her pro-democracy party achieved a decisive victory in the national elections. This triumph, however, was met with fierce resistance from the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which performed poorly at the polls. Unable to accept the results, the USDP demanded a re-run, alleging widespread electoral fraud. These claims, however, were unsubstantiated, and the Electoral Commission dismissed their demands. In retaliation, the military seized power, plunging the nation into escalating violence and instability.
Since then, Myanmar has descended into a deepening crisis. Pro-democracy protesters have faced severe repression from the military, resulting in numerous deaths and escalating into armed rebellion. Exacerbating the already unstable situation, the coup has also reignited long-standing ethnic tensions that have plagued Myanmar for decades. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project considers this conflict to be the most violent among the 50 wars it monitors worldwide in 2023, with an estimated 50,000 deaths, including at least 8,000 civilians.
A Symbolic Loss in Lashio
Myanmar’s military junta is facing increasing pressure as rebel militias and pro-democracy groups gain ground across the country. The military, divided into 14 regional commands, is now engaged in conflicts in at least 10 of these regions. As the junta struggles to maintain control, it has implemented a mandatory draft in a desperate attempt to replenish its dwindling forces. Yet, these measures seem insufficient as opposition forces grow bolder and more coordinated
A key development in these escalating conflicts is Operation 1027, launched in October 2023. This operation is led by ethnic armed groups collectively known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA). The Three Brotherhood Alliance has explicitly stated that their mission is to “overthrow the military dictatorship”.
As part of Operation 1027, the MNDAA and its allied forces launched an intense offensive aimed at seizing control of Lashio in late June. This crucial town in Shan State—the largest in the region, with an airport on a key trade route to China—houses the junta’s Northeastern Military Command. Therefore, Lashio is a vital stronghold for maintaining the regime’s control over Myanmar’s northeastern region.
Because of its strategic importance, Lashio has become the theatre of some of the most intense and deadly urban battles in the country. As the offensive to capture the town intensified, the military responded by deploying over 5,000 Tatmadaw soldiers to confront the roughly 6,000 troops from the MNDAA-led alliance. The heavy fighting has resulted in significant casualties, with around 2,000 soldiers and 500 resistance fighters reported dead. Additionally, reports indicate that 4,783 individuals, including 2,000 soldiers and their families, have surrendered to the resistance. In a further blow to the junta’s control, the opposition forces have also captured several high-ranking military officials, including a major general and two brigadier generals.
The conflict reached a critical turning point in early August when anti-coup forces achieved a decisive victory. After weeks of relentless combat, the MNDAA and its allied resistance groups captured a key military base in the city. The Northeastern Regional Military Command—among the most heavily fortified and defended of the military’s regional commands—represented a particularly strategic and symbolic win for the resistance groups.
This setback underscores the growing challenges the junta faces as its authority erodes across Myanmar. Despite its superior weaponry and aerial capabilities, the military has struggled to maintain its dominance as opposition forces continue to challenge its control. For instance, the resistance now holds approximately 75 cities and towns throughout Myanmar, including two strategic airports—one in Thandwe, Rakhine State, and the other in Lashio.
Violence in Rakhine: Toward a New Rohingya Crisis
The predominantly Muslim Rohingya community has long faced systemic discrimination and ethnic violence. For years, the Rohingya were denied citizenship and basic rights, including freedom of movement and access to higher education, and were barred from holding public office. The situation reached a devastating peak in 2017 when the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown. This violent operation caused widespread sexual violence, the burning of Rohingya villages, and the deaths of thousands, driving at least 742,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh. Now under investigation for potential genocide, the aftermath has left thousands stranded in refugee camps. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, over 1 million Rohingya refugees have escaped violence through multiple waves of displacement since the 1990s. Currently, more than 960,000 Rohingya refugees are living in Bangladesh, while others have sought refuge in other countries in the region, such as Thailand, India, Indonesia, and Nepal.
Recently, violence has surged in Rakhine State, home to the Rohingya. The Arakan Army, which claims to represent the Rakhine Buddhist majority, is fighting Myanmar’s military junta in its quest for independence. To secure control over Rakhine State, the AA has employed widespread violence, raising alarms about a potential resurgence of systematic violence against the Rohingya minority. According to the UN, the situation is particularly alarming: the Rohingya population is not merely caught in the crossfire but is being specifically targeted by the AA.
The Arakan Army’s takeover of Buthidaung in May illustrates the extreme violence inflicted on the Muslim minority. Reports suggest that the group bombarded, looted, and set fire to Rohingya neighbourhoods in the town and nearby villages. Residents reported that on the evening of May 17, AA fighters began igniting fires in Buthidaung after ordering an evacuation by 10 a.m. the next day. At that time, thousands of Rohingya who had fled nearby villages were taking shelter in schools, homes, and the hospital in central Buthidaung. Witnesses observed that the fires, gunfire, and shelling seemed unrelated to any apparent clashes between the forces. Witnesses who fled the town described the scene as apocalyptic. They reported that attackers unleashed heavy weapons and set houses on fire, causing widespread panic. Many residents fled, but some elderly people and children were unable to escape and were left behind in the burning buildings.
After the AA gained control of Buthidaung, the conflict moved to Maungdaw, another predominantly Rohingya town near the Bangladeshi border, which has since become the scene of especially violent confrontations. In June, the AA laid siege to the city. Before the attack, they issued a warning to residents, instructing them to evacuate by the following morning. Many who remain in Maungdaw describe atrocious living conditions. They are forced to stay indoors, fearing for their lives amid the ongoing violence. Food scarcity has also become a critical issue. The United Nations World Food Programme reported that its warehouse in Maungdaw, which held 1,175 metric tons of food and supplies—enough to feed 64,000 people for a month—was looted and set on fire in June.
On August 5, the escalating violence in the region reached a particularly brutal climax. Thousands of terrified Rohingya trying to escape the violence by crossing the Naf River into Bangladesh were tragically targeted by a drone attack. According to the Associated Press, at least 150 people were killed, though other sources suggest the number may be even higher. Many others were injured; Médecins Sans Frontières reports that nearly half of the wounded are women and children.
Activists and local media have reported that attacks on villages in the region continued in the days following the drone strike. These sources detail ongoing violence, with reports indicating that the situation has become increasingly dire for the Rohingya.
It is equally important to note that in Rakhine State, no community has been spared from the impact of the conflict. A recent report from Human Rights Watch reveals that both the Myanmar military and the AA have been involved in extrajudicial executions and widespread arson, targeting not only the Rohingya but also other civilians in the region. In fact, Rakhine civilians, too, have suffered from these atrocities. In April, the junta and several Rohingya armed factions raided and ignited ethnic Rakhine neighbourhoods in Buthidaung town and nearby villages. Both factions are forcibly recruiting civilians to bolster their ranks and exacerbate ethnic divisions within the communities. For example, the junta, with the assistance of some Rohingya armed groups, has illegally recruited thousands of Rohingya men and boys from Rakhine State and Bangladeshi refugee camps. Between March and June, some 1,800 refugees were forcibly recruited and smuggled into Rakhine State. Some were, for instance, coerced into participating in staged protests against the AA. These actions, along with the spread of hate speech and misinformation, have exacerbated tensions between the Rohingya and Rakhine communities, further fuelling the conflict.
Myanmar is now more unstable than ever, with conflicts proliferating and the junta desperately clinging to power. The widespread violence is taking a severe toll on civilians across the country. According to Human Rights Watch, in 2024, 18.6 million people, including 6 million children, are in need of assistance—a dramatic increase from the 1 million people who required aid prior to the coup. The ongoing crises in Lashio and Rakhine are among numerous emergencies that are claiming lives and deepening the suffering of the population. The path to peace and stability remains increasingly elusive, with little immediate relief in sight for those caught in the crossfire.
In a time when most non-profits have had to pause their efforts due to the challenging political climate, Children of the Mekong has continued its work, thanks to our dedicated network of local volunteers. Our initiatives—ranging from food distribution to informal education and child sponsorship—are tailored to meet the urgent needs of communities impacted by this crisis.
Now, more than ever, you can help transform lives. By sponsoring a child in Letthamar, you are helping ensure they receive vital support—access to education, meals, and a stable environment. In a region destabilized by conflict, where displacement and economic insecurity are daily realities, your support ensures these children can continue to learn and grow, even in the toughest circumstances. This is your chance to make a real, lasting impact where it is needed most.
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